Diplomatic Affairs analyst Ahmed Hashi has explained why former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will lose the African Union Commission Chairmanship seat.
Kenya on Tuesday unveiled the candidature of Raila for chairperson of the AUC at a colourful ceremony graced by several East African Community (EAC) heads of State.
President William Ruto led the launch at State House, Nairobi, where he hosted EAC Chairman Salva Kiir Mayardit, who is also the president of South Sudan, Presidents Samia Suluhu Hassan (Tanzania) and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda.
However, Hashi who previously worked with Raila argues that the former Prime Minister wil not clinch the chairmanship seat.
“I think what is important is to look at the context today of the African continent and the States and the nations that are there how we expect they’re going to behave towards Kenya’s candidate
“I think he is going to lose this election in Addis Ababa and I think I’m the only one who thinks that. I think that across the border everybody believes that he is going to win,” he said.
Hashi said that although his opinion is unpopular, Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Youssouf will win the seat.
“I will be shocked if he gets even a slim majority, I think the candidate from Djibouti is going to win with a landslide,” he added.
Hashi pointed out that Raila will have a difficult time to secure the seat because of significant events that have taken place in Africa including the youth rebellion.
“There’s a rebellion of the youth as you know as we have it here in Kenya; across from Senegal all the way to Sudan, there is a popular national democratic revolution.
“One of the major issues that young people are fighting over is because there’s bad governance and a terrible economy,” he explained.
Hashi also mentioned the 2017 African Union Commission elections, during which Kenya’s candidate, former Foreign Affairs Cabinet Secretary Amina Mohamed, was defeated by Chad’s Moussa Faki after seven rounds of voting.
Reports from that time suggested that a last-minute decision by Uganda, Djibouti, and Burundi contributed to Kenya’s loss of the position.
“The people in charge in these nations have fundamental influence from the metropol. The AU is divided based on these fundamental tectonic plates and one of the biggest influence of the AU is the French,” he noted.
Speaking during the launch of his candidature, Raila noted that he was ready to serve Africa.
“My heart is ready, my hands are steady and with your support, I shall get the opportunity to be of service to Africa, the cradle of mankind. I am made in Eastern Africa for Africa,” he said.
Raila exuded confidence that he would win the seat in the first round of the elections.
He will contest against Djibouti Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, former Mauritius Foreign Minister Anil Kumarsingh Gayan and Richard James Randriamandrato, a former Madagascar Foreign Minister.
