As the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson elections approach, candidates are intensifying their efforts to secure support, preparing for a critical showdown as the continent’s heads of state prepare to cast their votes.
The four candidates in the race are Kenya’s former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Djibouti’s Foreign Affairs Minister Mahmoud Youssouf, Mauritius’ Anil Gayan, and Madagascar’s Richard Randriamandrato.
Slated for February 2025, the elections will be held in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, during the African Union Summit.
As the election date approaches, questions are emerging about how African countries will vote for the next chairperson. This role is pivotal for ensuring adherence to AU policies, strategies, programs, and projects, crucial for maintaining conformity and harmony across the continent.
To win the sought-after continental seat, a candidate requires 66 percent of the votes, or 32 countries. Therefore, multiple factors must be considered to determine how African countries are expected to cast their votes.
Regional Alliances
African Union votes are frequently swayed by regional alliances and blocs, such as the East African Community (EAC), IGAD, COMESA, SADCC, and ECOWAS. Countries within these blocs may back candidates from their own region or those who have played a significant role in regional matters.
Political and Economic Interests
Nations may support candidates who align with their political and economic interests. For instance, countries with common economic goals or political ideologies might favor a candidate who commits to addressing those concerns.
Diplomatic Relations
Candidates with robust diplomatic connections and a history of building positive relationships across the continent are likely to receive broader support. These ties facilitate effective collaboration, negotiation, conflict resolution, and the formation of alliances to advance continental policies and initiatives.
Past Achievements
Candidates with notable achievements or leadership experience in their home countries or international organizations are likely to be favored. Such accomplishments provide evidence of their ability to lead and address continental issues effectively.
Past successes also help build trust and credibility, showcasing their ability to implement policies and drive progress within the African Union.
Current Challenges
The ongoing challenges facing the AU, including conflict resolution, economic development, and climate change, may shape voting patterns. Countries are likely to support candidates who offer solutions or have a proven track record in tackling these issues. Effectively addressing current challenges also highlights a candidate’s relevance and potential to make a significant impact in the role.
Considering the candidates in the AU chairperson race, each contender has his set of unique strengths that set him apart, and will likely influence how African countries will vote.
Raila Odinga (Kenya)
Known for his extensive political career and influence in East Africa, Raila Odinga is a strong candidate for AU Chair. His suitability stems from his vast political experience, diplomatic skills, commitment to regional integration, and successful reform efforts in Kenya. He has also received endorsements from 20 countries, predominantly from the Eastern African region.
Richard Randriamandrato (Madagascar)
Richard Randriamandrato, a prominent politician with significant experience in Madagascar’s government as the Minister of Economy and Finance, is well-regarded for his influence in political and economic matters. His appeal to Indian Ocean countries is bolstered by his extensive regional experience, dedication to economic development, and focus on tackling environmental challenges specific to island nations.
Anil Kumarsingh Gayan (Mauritius)
Mauritian politician Anil Kumarsingh Gayan is a compelling choice for Southern African countries due to his extensive experience in international affairs and diplomatic expertise. Having led high-level delegations, negotiated bilateral agreements, and represented Mauritius at global and regional forums, Gayan’s proven leadership and commitment to regional integration and economic growth align well with the priorities of Southern African nations.
Mahmoud Ali Youssouf (Djibouti)
Djibouti Minister of Foreign Affairs Mahmoud Ali Youssouf is a leading candidate for the AU Chairmanship, given his influence in the Horn of Africa and extensive diplomatic career. His appeal to Muslim-majority states and his expected support from influential countries like Egypt and Algeria bolster his candidacy. Additionally, his fluency in French enhances his appeal to Francophone nations, further solidifying his position through strategic alliances.
In conclusion, the voting outcome will likely reflect a balance of these factors, as countries assess the advantages of supporting a candidate capable of addressing both their regional and continental priorities effectively.
