President William Ruto’s newly formed, inclusive government has led Raila Odinga’s allies to consider a potential political alliance with the Kenya Kwanza administration, but they will only proceed if their conditions are fulfilled.
After years of political rivalry between the two major parties, key figures in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) have recently concluded that President Ruto’s broad-based government is essential for his political survival. They now believe that ODM should be more substantially integrated into the current administration’s operations.
Leading ODM members have decided that their support for President Ruto hinges on Raila Odinga winning the prestigious African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship in February 2025. If this condition is met, it could open the door to a power-sharing agreement that would integrate ODM with Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA).
This was echoed by Odinga’s brother Siaya senator Dr Oburu Odinga who noted that this was the first step in winning over the Luo community. He then stated in order for the community to support his presidential bid in 2027, the community must be further integrated in government, in employment in all sectors of government, “so that Luos feel they are part and parcel of the government.”
Dr. Odinga stated that the community owed President Ruto their support due to his role in securing Raila Odinga’s position as Prime Minister in 2007. He highlighted how Ruto had rallied the Rift Valley to support the former premier.
“He did not just support him by word of mouth but mobilized people in the Rift Valley who voted for him man to man yet we did not give him much in the last election,” Dr Oginga said.
He also noted that with the appointment of ODM’s top leadership to key government ministries, it was only natural for power-sharing negotiations to be addressed ahead of the 2027 elections.
“We have given you our cream of the party. We have given you our two deputy party leaders (Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya), we have given you John Mbadi who was our chairman, as well as Opiyo Wandayi who was minority leader in parliament, that’s the top most cream from our party and we want them to work for Kenyans.”
“We are telling you Mr president that as things move, let us continue to talk and negotiate and let our people feel the government, let them feel they are also part of the government,” he stated in an interview with the Nation.
Suna East MP and National Assembly Minority leader Junet Mohamed also pointed out that ODM’s support for Ruto was only assured if Raila became the next AUC chairman.
“Raila’s AU quest is very important to us. We saw a great launch with EAC presidents around.
“If we secure that post; mambo itakuwa matatu na hiyo matatu tutatangaza siku ingine (We shall have only three issues and those we will declare at an opportune time),” added Mr Mohamed.
He criticized the 2018 Handshake deal with former President Uhuru Kenyatta for marginalizing ODM’s role in the government, noting that it did not lead to Raila Odinga’s presidency in 2022. However, the situation is different now, with ODM’s top leadership securing cabinet positions, demonstrating the party’s integration within the current administration.
“We were never given any cabinet position but now we have ODM members who have resigned to join the cabinet. So now, even if somebody says we are part of the government, we can agree but the other one, we were put on the periphery until last minute when we thought we were winning, but it just went like that. It was a sad state of affairs,” Mohamed said.
Blue Economy Cabinet Secretary Ali Hassan Joho also expressed his views on ODM’s role in the government, affirming that the situation is different this time, as the party is firmly integrated into the administration.
“I want to say for the record that we are now in government. I can feel it and I have no plans of leaving today, tomorrow or in future.
“Wale ambao hawaamini wajue hii safari ni ya masafa marefu(Those in doubt should understand that this is long journey). We shall walk the journey together,” Joho said.
The former Mombasa governor reiterated that ODM owed President Ruto a debt, recalling that during his time in ODM, Ruto was considered for the Prime Minister role if Raila Odinga had won the presidency in 2007. Joho revealed that Ruto deferred his own ambitions for Raila, which ultimately led to Odinga’s appointment as Prime Minister in the Grand Coalition government in 2008.
“In our previous plan, Raila was to be president, Mudavadi Deputy president and William Ruto Prime Minister.
However, things did not go as planned but Ruto excused himself for Raila to be Prime Minister and he chose to remain a mere Minister,” Joho explained.
“So he (Ruto) has sacrificed before and he continues to sacrifice. I will work tirelessly and we shall defend the government and shall support you to unite the country,” the former ODM Deputy Party leader added.
There have been discussions that Raila Odinga, having secured President Ruto’s support for his AUC chairmanship bid, might reciprocate by endorsing Ruto for a second term. This could follow the formation of a robust, united Western Kenya bloc, similar to the 2007 ODM coalition.
Pundits believe that President Ruto’s new charm offensive towards ODM is a strategy to garner support from the Coastal, Western, and Nyanza regions. This comes as his support from the Mt. Kenya region has waned due to the ongoing power struggle with his Deputy, Rigathi Gachagua.
